Author Archive
The Financial Post
has a good interview with David Ginther, who runs the $1.3 billion dividend income portfolio at
Waddell & Reed Investment. Ginther's still worried about the
subprime mortgage crisis, but he points to another concern: the high level of credit in this country.
"This could be the next leg of the financial crisis," he says. Ginther focuses on income and growth, and is going back to basics with
stock picks these days. Here are the stocks he likes:
- McDonald's: Ginther's been buying the stock for the past year. He particularly likes the new specialty coffee drinks that McDonald's is launching at a lower price than Starbucks. The company has also controlled costs even as commodity and labor prices have increased. McDonalds generates free cash flow nicely, he added.
- Philip Morris International: The company has a 15% share of the international cigarette market, and leads in 12 of the 19 largest cigarette markets. It has zero exposure to the U.S., and that's a good thing, Ginther says, with smoking bans and excise taxes on the rise here.
- Pepsi: The company is about to go global with its Frito-Lay brand, and already gets a significant portion of sales from other countries.
What does Ginther not like?
Boeing. He sold his shares on concerns about rising operating costs and a slowing global economy.
Related reading:
McDonald's Dollar Menu threatened
7 high-yield dividend stocks for the current market
Coke and Pepsi fear bottled water backlash
Insiders bail as McDonald's brews trouble
EBay is
getting lots of attention today for lowering "Buy it Now" insertion fees, but
a different announcement caught my eye. Starting in October, customers can no longer pay with cash or a check. Instead, they have to use a
credit card or eBay's own
PayPal online service.
EBay says the move is designed to reduce fraud. But if a buyer wants to send a check (or cash or a money order), and a seller is OK with that, how can eBay stand in the way? EBay is pushing PayPal on its customers so it can charge PayPal transaction fees and boost its revenues.
I've written before about how
PayPal is the shining star within eBay, with $582 million in revenue in the first quarter. PayPal's revenue grew by a third from the year before -- much faster than eBay's auction business.
EBay is going to milk the PayPal cash cow as much as possible. The company would roll out a PayPal-only policy in the blink of an eye if it could. It
tried that in Australia this summer, in fact, but the ensuing outcry caused eBay to back down.
I think Australia was a test case to see what eBay could get away with. Now, PayPal or a credit card is permissible. But there will be no cash trading hands.
In its defense, eBay says that people who pay with a check or money order are 80% more likely to file an "item not received" claim with the company (eBay also says those buyers are 50% more likely to have negative feedback, which is irrelevant now that buyers can't receive negative feedback). EBay also says that sellers won't have to deal with fraudulent money orders anymore.
I've won an eBay auction in the past where the seller insisted on receiving a money order as payment. It was inconvenient for me, to be sure. But some buyers and sellers prefer to do business the old-fashioned way. EBay no longer tolerates that.
Here's an overview of eBay's new fee structure.
Here's what others are saying about today's news:
Silicon Alley Insider: "EBay sellers have a thousand gripes about the company, but what they all boil down to is, 'you're taking us to the cleaners.' Instead of trying to explain to pissed-off sellers that they really shouldn't be so mad, eBay should make them happy: By providing the simplest, most efficient, and most cost-effective selling solution in the galaxy."
BusinessWeek: "Auction sellers have argued that eBay is favoring fixed-price goods to their detriment, neglecting the business that made eBay the e-commerce giant it is today. EBay executives have countered, saying that eBay will always have auctions, though it has to give buyers the ability to shop the way they want. Increasingly, that means giving them the convenience of buying something for a set price."
EBay seller posting on an AuctionBytes forum: "Are they nuts? I will have to opt for a
merchant account, as I refuse to use PayPal.... But, how about the casual small sellers??? Seems like another scam to force people to sign up to PayPal..."
Andy Zaky
argues on his blog that investors shouldn't use the
price-to-earnings ratio (or P/E) when evaluating
Apple stock. That's because Apple's earnings are artificially lowered by the way the company calculates
iPhone revenue.
Instead of plugging an iPhone sale directly into the revenue column, Apple
uses a subscription method that slowly recognizes revenue over a two-year period. So revenue for a phone sold today goes mainly into the "current
deferred revenue" and "non-current deferred revenue" columns until two years have passed.
Zaky thinks that about $2 billion in revenue is missing from Apple income statements because it's stuck over in the deferred columns. And analysts are ignoring that, he writes. As a result, Apple is generally undervalued.
Apple should be analyzed on a price-to-
free cash flow basis, he writes. He predicts that the Street will increase its valuation of Apple, but that won't happen until next year.