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The economic crisis is taking a staggering and tragic toll on American carmakers.
General Motors saw its shares drop to a 58-year-low today, tumbling 31% to $4.76.
Ford's stock price fell 22% to a miserable $2.08.
The drop came after forecaster J.D. Power
cut its predictions for U.S. car sales for this year and next. People are holding on to their old cars for longer now and putting off buying replacement vehicles, the forecaster said. Adding to the gloom: Standard & Poor's is considering cutting GM's ratings.
The long-term impact on the industry will be huge. Some car dealers have
already filed for bankruptcy, seeing as the tumbleweeds blowing through their locations aren't buying anything. And other dealerships are likely to follow.
Carmakers are burning through cash, and may have to make drastic cuts to their workforce. GM is now
pleading for a $250 million loan from a city pension fund in Detroit. Employee morale is in the tank, said Gerald Meyers, the former CEO of American Motors.
"The effect on employees and dealers is severe," he told The Detroit News. "It's like finding out that you have a terminal disease. You try to do something about it, but you know and everyone around you knows that you are in deep trouble."
The crisis is affecting Detroit's upper echelons as well. The Ford family fortune has been mostly destroyed. Nine years ago, the family's special Class B shares were worth $2.25 billion. Now, they're worth less than $189 million,
The Detroit News reports.
And that was before Ford stock took an 18% dive today to close at a miserable $2.17. The share price hasn't been that low in decades. Ford's market cap has fallen to $4.9 billion.
Now, some experts are wondering if these carmakers can make it. "It's going to be a tough fight,"
one industry analyst said.
Related reading:
Auto sales crash and burn
Car dealerships the new endangered species?
Ford shareholders want out
Is a major down cycle upon us?
The Motley Fool talks about
options as a way to insure your portfolio against huge losses. Using options, an investor reserves the chance to
buy or sell a stock at a set price, and within a specific time period.
A
put option means you can sell a stock at a certain price before a certain date. Buying a put option for your stock is like buying insurance for it, the Fool says. You pick a price that you want to sell it at, and even if the stock falls to $0, you'd still be able to sell your shares at the price you picked.
Buying puts aren't cheap, particularly because they expire after a set time. But in this market, puts could make a big difference. The Motley Fool suggests buying them if you own large or important amounts of a certain stock, and you're worried that the
stock price could go down the tubes any day now.
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I can't understand why
RealNetworks is introducing new software that lets people copy a DVD to the computer. The software is loaded with rules and limitations (more on that in a minute) and pales in comparison to free products out there.
The product, called RealDVD, is presumably intended to beef up the weakest prong in RealNetworks' three-pronged product strategy. Music and games sales consistently outperform the media software and services side. But unfortunately for RealNetworks, RealDVD is too little, too late.
Investors reacted to the news with a collective shrug. RealNetworks shares are unchanged in trading Monday at $6.19.
RealDVD costs $50 (though it's on sale now for $30) and will make a digital copy of a DVD. Sounds like something that would throw Hollywood in a tizzy, right? RealNetworks is hoping to avoid any legal drama by locking down the movies so they can't be shared; a movie will only play back on the original computer. Actually it can be played on up to five more computers, but you have to buy another copy of the software for each computer.
Once you get the movie on the computer, you can't burn it to another DVD.
Maybe if this had come out years ago, it would have stood a chance. But there are plenty of free programs that do the same thing without all the rules (MacTheRipper, for example, is ridiculously simple to use). The big difference is that the legality of those free programs is in question, while RealDVD, at least for now, is legit.
RealNetworks says the software is ideal for consumers and travelers (although I don't see why travelers can't just bring a DVD with them). Again, a little late. There are too many other ways to get movies on the PC now. Rent a movie through iTunes or
Amazon. Find a free one on
Hulu. Stream a video online with
Netflix. Watch your DVR library with a Slingbox, or your
TiVo library with the TiVo Desktop.
It's a crowded field, and a $50 program choked by regulations will get buried quickly.
Related reading:
Amazon opens new online movie store
Netflix lifts limits on streaming movies
Apple's new iTunes video rentals could be huge
Hulu debuts. There goes your work day
Investing guru David Harper
explains the equity risk premium, which is the excess return you'd get from the
market above a risk-free
investment. A higher premium means buy, buy, buy. Harper goes over the different ways you can calculate this premium.
"Let's remember that the equity premium refers to a long-term estimate for the entire market of publicly-traded stocks," he writes. "Lately several studies have cautioned that we should expect a fairly conservative premium in the future."
It's a good how-to, but what I really wanted him to do was crunch the numbers for the current market so I don't have to.